The Indianapolis Colts are falling, and falling quickly. But while this team continues to spiral, we’ve still been able to find value in lines and player props that Vegas is pricing incorrectly.
We’ve managed to capitalize on the chaos, going 15-7 on Colts-specific bets. With Dallas coming to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, it’s time to hunt for value.
The past week was dominated by trade speculation involving nearly every talented player left on this roster. But for now, guys like Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs are still Colts.
After neither was moved this week, I expect some of that noise to settle down. These guys are still here to make plays and put production on tape, and I expect a much more active offensive showing than we saw in Jacksonville.
On the other side, the Cowboys passing attack with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens could tear this Colts secondary apart.
Here’s what I like for Week 9.
Seth McGowan Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The rookie is heating up, and I love the juice McGowan has brought to this offense lately.
He has cleared this line in four of his last five games, including 29, 46, and 27 rushing yards over his last three. It’s becoming clear Shane Steichen wants to find ways to get the ball in his hands.
McGowan has also flashed as a kick returner, averaging 27.9 yards on 24 returns. That’s what playmakers do — find a way to get the football and make something happen.
I’m riding the hot hand here.
Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-135)
This game feels like a pretty big tell for where Taylor stands with this franchise.
He was held to just 23 yards on eight carries and failed to reach the end zone against Jacksonville. But even after that performance, Taylor still has eight rushing touchdowns through eight games.
Dallas is also exactly the type of defense I want to target with him. The Cowboys allow an NFL-worst 152.8 rushing yards per game, while ranking 30th in missed tackles and 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
The new-look Colts offensive line now has a full game together. I’m betting on a Taylor rebound.
Keenan Allen Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Allen has quietly been one of the most consistent pieces of this Colts offense.
He has cleared this line in four of his last five games, posting 67, 82, 45, and 63 yards in those four hits. With the rest of this receiving corps dealing with injuries, trade speculation, or inconsistent production, Allen remains Daniel Jones’ most reliable veteran target.
Dallas allows the 26th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Give me Allen over 40.5.
CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-111)
This one almost feels too easy.
Lamb already has six receiving touchdowns through eight games, and now he gets one of the league’s most vulnerable secondaries. Trevor Lawrence did whatever he wanted through the air last week, and Prescott should have plenty of opportunities to do the same.
The matchup gets even better when you look at coverage tendencies.
Lamb has the second-largest disparity between his man and zone coverage grades this season, favoring man coverage. Indianapolis runs man at the ninth-highest rate in the league.
Lamb should get plenty of chances.
McGowan and Allen give us two strong yardage plays, while Taylor and Lamb are my favorite touchdown spots.
The Colts might be difficult to trust right now, but that doesn’t mean we can’t keep finding value in the chaos.
Good luck and bet responsibly.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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