Facing a Saturday loaded with matchups involving highly ranked teams across the college football slate, it was a given we would see some chaos. Week 10 delivered.
Once again, the AP top 25 pollsters and playoff selection committee members are faced with even more critical decisions that will reshape the very fluid postseason picture.
Who’s on the move this week?
Rankings reflect AP top 25 poll
Moving down: Miami
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Turns out, not having Malachi Toney really hurts the Hurricanes’ offense. Star quarterback Darian Mensah remarkably only had 100 yards passing in the third quarter, and saw his Heisman odds fall in real time during the game.
He doubled that output the rest of the way, but not having college football’s third-most productive per-game wide receiver on the field clearly limited this offense in what became a seven-point loss at Notre Dame.
A fall is coming for the Hurricanes in both the AP rankings and the playoff poll. Their drop in the former could be cushioned by BYU’s loss and Indiana being idle, which would allow them to stay in the top five.
Voters won’t punish a top-ranked team for losing by a touchdown on the road against the fourth-ranked team too harshly. Nor will the selection committee, who could drop Miami just one spot to the No. 2 position as a result of this loss.
Moving up: Notre Dame
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
There was a massive discrepancy between the AP pollsters and the selection committee on where to put the Fighting Irish.
The selectors put them at No. 11 and left them clinging to the inside of the playoff bracket with a perceived low quality schedule and no signature wins.
They have one now, building a strong lead and then holding on late to take down No. 1 Miami behind a strong effort from quarterback CJ Carr.
That should be enough to move further into the top four in the AP rankings and slide definitively inside the playoff field. They’ll stay there provided they win out.
Moving up: Georgia
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
There will be a new No. 1 team in the college football rankings this week. Will it be the Bulldogs? The logic suggests so.
They came into Saturday ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, and the loss by Miami would imply that Georgia easily moves up after pummeling a ranked Ole Miss playoff hopeful on the road by a convincing 42-7 count.
But more than a few AP voters could be looking at Notre Dame for that top ranking. If they do, that could complicate the selection committee’s thinking. They put the Irish at No. 11, and could bring about more controversy if they don’t agree.
We project no such controversy, as the Irish will probably be kept out of the AP No. 1 ranking by Georgia this week, a move the playoff selectors will follow.
Moving down: Ole Miss
Last week’s ranking: No. 12
One of the last teams in the selection committee’s first ranking, the Rebels faced a critical must-win against SEC champ Georgia, and scored all of 7 points. The problem is Georgia scored the first 35.
Trinidad Chambliss came into the game as one of college football’s most efficient and productive quarterbacks. Facing Georgia’s angry defense, he was neither.
Chambliss hit 18 of 34 passes for 170 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. The Rebels’ ground game didn’t help, finishing with 66 yards while posting 2.1 yards per carry.
Now a middling team in the SEC standings at 6-3, Ole Miss could win out and finish 9-3. They go to Oklahoma next, then host Wofford and Mississippi State. But at this point, they need more help than just winning.
Moving up: Alabama
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
For a selection committee that put the Crimson Tide in their top five with two losses to ranked SEC teams, they’ll be thrilled by what this team just accomplished at LSU.
Alabama’s previous wins against Kentucky and South Carolina, now both ranked, were put forward as evidence that they deserved that high placement.
Now, armed with a road win against Lane Kiffin’s ranked Tigers, that argument just got even stronger. Especially looking at the Tide’s remaining schedule.
Kalen DeBoer’s team has a signature win in one of college football’s most intense environments and looks ahead to favorable matchups against Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, and Auburn.
Win out and the Tide should be 10-2 and hosting a College Football Playoff game in the first round.
Moving down: LSU
Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Whatever the selection committee didn’t see in this team before, they see less of it now after a not particularly close loss at home to Alabama. Who the committee loves.
They love LSU a little less now. They still don’t have a win against a ranked team this season, and now all three of their losses are against highly ranked SEC competition (Kentucky and Ole Miss), allowing more than 30 points on each occasion.
With no room for another loss and set to lose considerable ground in the rankings this week, LSU’s road to an at-large playoff bid in Kiffin’s debut season is in real peril.
Moving down: Ohio State
Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Once upon a time, the Buckeyes were the preseason No. 1 ranked team in college football. Then it all came tumbling down.
A one-point loss at Texas, where they had a 20-point lead, an injury to Julian Sayin, a loss at USC, and now a stunning home loss to Oregon have changed everything.
The selection committee was already losing hope after Sayin’s injury, dropping the Buckeyes to No. 12 as the first team out. Now, they’re due for an even bigger fall in the committee room and in the AP poll, and their season could effectively be over.
It’s not just the backup quarterback. Sure, Luke Fahey is no Sayin, but this offense simply looks lost, isn’t really involving Jeremiah Smith anymore, and the defense has basically imploded over the last two games.
Ohio State still technically has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, but in practical terms those hopes vanished in an ugly home loss to the Ducks.
Moving up: Tennessee
Last week’s ranking: No. 16
A week after controversy reigned as the Volunteers were ranked eight spots behind the Alabama team they beat by 16 points, their smashing Kentucky at home should rearrange who belongs where among the SEC superpowers this week.
Tennessee made a statement on Saturday night by dominating the rival Wildcats in a 34-6 splattering. Considering how highly the committee regarded UK, that should be a massive vote of confidence for Josh Heupel’s team in the strength of record category.
Moving down: Kentucky
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
A consensus top-ten team both for AP pollsters and the selection committee, the Wildcats will nonetheless be on the receiving end of a negative reassessment this week.
A top 40 scoring offense nationally coming into this weekend, the UK attack mustered six points against a smothering Tennessee defense.
Kentucky played three scoreless quarters, and the offense stalled in drives that ended with an interception, two fumbles, and two turnovers on downs.
Suddenly, the Wildcats’ path to the College Football Playoff grows a little more complicated. This loss effectively erases any margin of error they had coming in. They head into two games against ranked opponents, against Florida and at Missouri.
Moving up: Utah
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Finally, the Utes look like they’ve overtaken Texas Tech and BYU, their primary competition in the Big 12, to emerge as the team to beat in this conference.
Utah and first-year coach Morgan Scalley are basically assured a place in the College Football Playoff now after moving to 9-0 with a signature win against rival BYU.
A loss by No. 1 Miami ensures there’s room for the Utes to inch deeper inside the top four. Will the pollsters jump the Irish after beating the top-ranked Canes? If not, Utah will move to No. 2 behind new No. 1 Georgia.
Moving down: BYU
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Give the Cougars credit. They overcame a quick two touchdown deficit and did enough to actually retake the lead going into halftime.
But this offense also unraveled as the game wore on. Four interceptions by Bear Bachmeier – two of them in the end zone – and several costly penalties later, and BYU ultimately couldn’t do enough well, and did too much badly, to win the Holy War.
A two-loss Big 12 team is not in an ideal position to make the College Football Playoff. This result puts the Cougars back in a bad way.
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