The Los Angeles Clippers take on the Golden State Warriors at home on Wednesday night in a “Win or Go Home” situation. The loser heads to Cancun, while the winner sets up a clash against the Phoenix Suns on Friday with the hopes of clinching a playoff spot. Both teams have gotten healthier in recent weeks and will have a ton of star power on the court, setting up for an exciting clash at the Intuit Dome. Who has the edge heading into the game?
Clippers Advantages
Since unexpectedly shaking up the roster at the trade deadline, the Clippers have been the much better team between the two teams. They have a +6.0 net rating and went 19-13 since the deadline, while the Warriors are -6.5 and 10-21 in that same span. A big reason why was Steph Curry’s extended absence due to a nagging knee injury.
This is one of the main advantages for LA against the Warriors. Curry has only played in four games since returning and has yet to play over 30 minutes in any game. Golden State only played a mere 41 possessions with Curry, Draymond Green, and Kristaps Porzingis on the court together, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Clippers will have Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland healthy and available, and both stars will play around 40 minutes. Leonard sat out in the regular-season finale, giving him five days of rest between games. This should give him a boost in the most important game of the season.
Plus, the Warriors don’t have the personnel to guard Kawhi. They lack forward-sized perimeter defenders after Jimmy Butler’s season-ending injury. The Clippers can struggle against physical, athletic teams, as demonstrated by their back-to-back losses against the Blazers, but the Warriors don’t have players that can overwhelm LA physically. This should allow the Clippers to score more efficiently.
The Warriors are a good rim-protecting team with Green, Porzingis, and Al Horford, but the Clippers don’t rely on getting to the rim to score. The Clippers’ isolation-heavy offense that takes a lot of mid-range shots should serve them well.
Clippers Disadvantages
Steph Curry is a very difficult matchup for a team with Brook Lopez at center. The Clippers play drop coverage and like to keep Lopez close to the rim. The Warriors, on the other hand, take more threes than any team in the league. This will allow them to get good looks from downtown.
The issue is, the Clippers don’t have better options at center. Isaiah Jackson remains questionable after missing the last eight games with an ankle sprain. If Lopez struggles in coverage, the Clippers will have to go to small-ball lineups, which can create other problems.
The Clippers, on the other hand, don’t generate as many threes as the Warriors. They shoot well in their attempts, but their role players are all low-volume shooters. If the Warriors are fine with leaving the likes of Kris Dunn, John Collins, and Derrick Jones Jr. open, these players will have to punish them by hitting some early shots. Otherwise, the Warriors can make things difficult by packing the paint.
The Clippers also struggle with rebounding the ball. They had the fourth-worst defensive rebounding rate since the trade deadline, and the Warriors have been an above-average offensive-rebounding team in the same span. A team effort is needed to help the frontcourt in this area.
Final Prediction
The Clippers are favored by 5.5 points on betting markets. With how much the Warriors have been struggling in recent weeks and Curry not being 100%, this is understandable. But this core has championship experience and shouldn’t be counted out. The Warriors will make this closer than many think. However, the Clippers should emerge victorious in the end.
Score Prediction: Clippers win 109-105
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