It’s finally rivalry week for the Chicago Bears. They’re taking on the Green Bay Packers in Week 5 and are actually favored to win, ending a 20-year streak as road underdogs at Lambeau Field. This is a pivotal game for both teams, despite the season still being early. The Packers are hoping a win against the favored Bears will prove they’re still the top dog in this rivalry and that their season is nowhere near over.
As for the Bears, a win today would mark their third straight victory over the Packers, a feat they’ve not accomplished since Week 1 of the 2006 season. That would signal a true sea-change in this rivalry and keep the Bears in the running to claim their second straight NFC North title.
The Bears may be expected to win, but rivalry games have a way of defying expectations, especially a Bears-Packers rivalry game. With that in mind, here are three keys the Bears must hit in order to secure a win today.
1. Tyson Bagent must do his best Caleb Williams impression
For the first time since injuring his hamstring, Caleb Williams practiced with the team on Friday and was marked as ‘Questionable’ on the Bears’ final Week 5 injury report, but you shouldn’t expect to see him play today. Ben Johnson named Tyson Bagent the starter early in the week and that’s almost certainly who’s going to be leading the Bears against the Packers.
The Packers are a dangerous team regardless of what the stats say, especially on defense. Lukas Van Ness looks like he’s experiencing a Year 4 breakout, and safety Xavier McKinney is a true ball-hawk in the secondary. If Bagent puts the ball in harms way as many times as he did last week against the New York Jets, the Packers can make him and the Bears pay.
Taking care of the football and hitting more explosive passes will be the keys for Bagent. These are two strengths of Caleb Williams, and while Bagent can’t be the same kind of playmaker that Williams is, he’ll need to do his best impression.
2. Blitz Jordan Love at a rate that would make Brian Flores blush
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the bizarre choice last week against the Packers to keep the blitzing to a minimum, and Jordan Love had arguably his best game of the season. The Bears can’t make that same mistake. They need to rattle Love early and often by sending extra pass rushers against what has been the worst offensive line in the league.
Additionally, the pass rushers need to get to Love fast. Last week against Tampa Bay, Love was getting the ball out in 2.2 seconds flat on average, which partly explained why his offensive line looked better. If defensive coordinator Dennis Allen sends extra defenders and they hit Love fast, Green Bay’s offense will struggle to move the ball at all.
3. D’Andre Swift must snap out of his funk
Since an explosive performance in the season-opener, D’Andre Swift has struggled. He’s averaging less than four years per carry over the last three games, has lost two fumbles, and scored zero touchdowns. His fumble last week against the Jets even got him benched in the second half, with head coach Ben Johnson calling it an egregious fumble.
Swift has to snap out of this funk today against the Packers, especially with Kyle Monangai being ruled out with a turf toe injury. If the Bears struggle to run the ball, that will only make life harder for Bagent, who is making just his second start in three years.
Final Prediction: Bears win 31-13
This game is going to be won or lost in the trenches, and the Bears are going to absolutely dominate there on both sides of the ball. Green Bay’s offensive line may be slightly improved with their newest additions, but all they’ve done is rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. Chicago’s defensive line, on the other hand, has been surprisingly good to start the year.
On the flip side of that, without Micah Parsons, the Packers don’t have any pass rushers who pose a true threat against Chicago’s dominant offensive line. Bagent should have plenty of time to pick apart Green Bay’s secondary while Swift runs for 120 yards. The boo-birds will be heard by halftime, and the Packers “faithful” will begin an early exodus midway through the fourth quarter as Chicago rolls to a dominant, tone-setting victory.
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