The West Coast has a big part to play in the growth considering its potential for increased energy exports.
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Canada’s best bet to increase non-U.S. exports is to focus on energy, metals and minerals, and agriculture, which have the potential to boost trade by $146 billion by 2035, according to a new report.
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Getting there, however, will depend on making strategic investments in moving a surge in shipments of those bulk commodities.
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“This is both private and government entities, but we need to place bets (on) what it is that we’re going to ship,” said Michael English, leader of the consulting firm PwC’s transportation and logistics advisory practice, the group that produced the report.
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PwC started its analysis after the first wave of U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies hit Canada and Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled his ambitions to double the country’s non-U.S. exports.
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FP West: Energy Insider
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The recent release of its results coincided with an escalation of trade tensions between the two countries and new rounds of tariffs and counter-tariffs.
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In its report, PwC estimated that the shifts will be “more than a short-term disruption,” and English said investments in infrastructure to handle bulk goods and energy will have the quickest payoff in meeting Canada’s objectives.
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Energy would be the largest part of the $146 billion increase in trade, according to PWC’s forecast, making it dependent on a scenario where the major liquefied natural gas expansion projects — particularly the large LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims LNG — go ahead.
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PwC’s report tracks Canada’s potential for expanding trade with a baseline of some $214 billion worth of non-U.S. exports in 2025, with just under $30 billion coming from energy, related to the start of LNG Canada and increased oil exports from the Trans Mountain Pipeline.
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If Canada follows the existing trend line for growth of non-U.S. exports, PwC’s forecasts it will hit $339 billion by 2035.
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On a more ambitious path, PwC estimates such exports rising to some $485 billion by 2035, with $106 billion coming from energy shipments, if Canada reaches Ottawa’s policy goal of doubling exports over the next decade.
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Much of the growth would flow through west coast ports, which have their own growth plans.
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English said that as an adviser, “We would never recommend any business to rely on one geography or one customer.”
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“The same logic applies for us as a country,” he added. “We need to diversify, but we need to understand what it is that we want to ship and where.”
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Canada’s west coast ports have been ramping up efforts to meet Carney’s objectives. Last week, three of B.C.’s key port authorities — the Port of Vancouver, Port of Prince Rupert and Port of Nanaimo — issued their own report on how they are positioning themselves to support expansion.
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Their economic impact report found that the three facilities, combined, carried some 200 million tonnes of cargo in 2025 worth some $409 billion. All three have their own expansion plans underway.
