Can Oregon make the CFP? Charting Ducks’ path to playoff in season that once seemed lost originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
If Oregon is going to be a College Football Playoff team in 2026, it would be arguably the wildest path to the bracket ever seen.
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The Ducks — who have already endured three losses, their starting quarterback going down with a long-term injury and a change at defensive coordinator — got their biggest win of the season on Saturday, toppling Ohio State 41-28. Entering 2026, the Week 10 game was anticipated to have significant CFP consequences. While that was the case, those consequences look far different than one would have originally thought.
Thanks to a 41-point outing on Saturday, somehow, Oregon’s path to the playoff isn’t quite dead yet. It will take some help, but the Ducks will be looking to make CFP history over the next few weeks.
Here’s a look at how Oregon can still make the CFP after upsetting Ohio State.
MORE:Bret Bielema rails against CFP committee in latest chapter of Big Ten-SEC feud
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In the 12-team era of the CFP, a third loss has mostly been viewed as a death sentence for playoff contenders. No team has made the bracket with three losses, though it’s not considered impossible. In the final rankings of a season, the highest a three-loss team has ranked was Alabama at No. 11 in 2025, but the Crimson Tide were still snubbed from the bracket.
Considering Oregon’s only “resume” wins would be beating USC on the road, Boise State at home and an Ohio State team without Julian Sayin in Columbus, it’s unlikely that the Ducks can make the bracket as an at-large selection. In 2024, the three-loss Alabama team had wins over No. 2 Georgia, No. 21 Missouri and No. 15 LSU, and still barely missed the playoff.
However, if Oregon can make the Big Ten title game, that would be a win-and-in scenario, as the Power 4 conference champions get an automatic berth to the CFP.
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After Saturday’s win, Oregon has a 4-2 record in Big Ten action. Assuming the Ducks win out, that number could improve to 7-2. But it would still take a bit of help for Dan Lanning’s squad to reach the Big Ten Championship.
The following teams are either still ahead of or tied with Oregon in the Big Ten standings, with their updated conference records included:
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UCLA (6-0)
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Indiana (5-1)
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Ohio State (4-2)
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USC (4-2)
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Illinois (4-2)
Iowa (3-2) and Northwestern (3-2) will also face off on Saturday night.
The good news for Oregon isn’t just that it has a favorable remaining schedule — the Ducks’ wins over Ohio State and USC could come in handy for tiebreaker purposes. Even if Oregon finishes with the same conference record as either of those teams, the Ducks would get the nod thanks to their head-to-head win.
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Illinois can at least be considered unlikely to reach the conference championship as well. The Illini face the unbeaten UCLA Bruins next week, then two more competitive Big Ten squads in Iowa and Northwestern.
That leaves Indiana as Oregon’s likely biggest threat to reach the Big Ten Championship. The Hoosiers face No. 20 USC next week, a game Ducks fans should be rooting for the Trojans in. The second tiebreaker for Big Ten standings is record vs. common opponents — Oregon will be hoping that if Indiana loses to USC, the Hoosiers then either lose another game (vs. Washington and Purdue) or have a worse record against common opponents.
You can consider it unlikely that Oregon scrapes its way into the CFP, even if it wins out. But it’s not impossible. The Ducks would at least need Indiana to falter, if not more added help, to reach a win-and-in scenario in the Big Ten Championship.
