‘Be humble’: Joyce’s warning for One Nation as polling surge threatens to reshape parliament

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce says he does not want to wipe out the National Party at the next election, as new analysis shows the junior Coalition partner could be reduced to a single senator at the expense of the surging populist force.

One Nation’s Senate representation could quadruple, based on current polling, prompting Joyce to caution against mooted plans for leader Pauline Hanson to surrender her safe upper house seat for the lower house.

“I think Pauline has capabilities, let’s make that unequivocal. I premise that on at least she’s run something, a shop. That is better than a lot of other prime ministers have done,” Joyce told this masthead, when asked if she might run for a seat in the House in the hopes of one day leading the government.

But he warned that any plan to win a lower house seat could backfire if a campaign was too confident.

“If you are being hubristic [the voters] will deliver you to a very miserable place. Be humble and understand that your political future, if you want to be in the House of Representatives, is not based on your colleagues, but the voters.”

One Nation is on track to become the biggest third party in Senate history at the next election, but would likely fall short of holding the balance of power as Labor and the Greens maintain control over the chamber.

A review of three current polls – including this masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor – by independent election analyst Ben Raue of The Tally Room blog puts One Nation just behind the Coalition in the next Senate, with the party growing from its current four senators to 16. The Coalition would hold 18 seats, down from 27.

Labor would likely remain relatively stable at 28 seats, meaning with the support of a prospective 12 Greens senators, the government could pass legislation without the need for conservatives or independents.

Raue’s calculations assume that One Nation’s vote is spread equally across the states and territories, as detailed state-by-state polling is not yet available.

To win a single seat in the Senate, a candidate needs to collect a “quota” of votes – around 14.3 per cent. Based on current polling, One Nation could win two quotas per state, and in a stretch, three in states such as Queensland, New South Wales, Western Australia and Tasmania.

In the most recent Resolve Political Monitor One Nation received 24 per cent of the primary vote. In polls published by The Australian Financial Review and The Australian newspapers, the party received between 27 and 31 per cent of the vote.

“The right is doing, probably, overall as a combined unit a little bit better than they were in 2025, but this isn’t a right-wing landslide,” Raue said.

“If that’s what we’re getting at next election, then the fact that the left did very well in 2025 means you still end up with a progressive Senate.”

Only half of Senate seats are contested during a general election. At the next election, the contested Senate seats were last won in 2022, when conservative parties performed better than in 2025.

Election analyst Antony Green agreed with Raue broadly, but said without those state-by-state polling breakdowns, speculation over the potential make-up of the Senate would be difficult to discern.

“It is highly likely that Labor and the Greens are not going to lose much at the next Senate election. If One Nation does particularly well, the question is where their seats come from if all they do is cannibalise the Coalition’s holding.”

Joyce, who previously said he would run for the Senate, is now reconsidering the move on the premise a bloc of new One Nation MPs would need guidance in the lower house, for fear the party would “look febrile, or worse, chaotic”.

On Tuesday afternoon, One Nation’s first elected lower house MP David Farley was sworn in after a landslide win at last month’s Farrer byelection in which he received a higher vote than the Nationals and Liberals combined. He joins Joyce on the House crossbench.

One Nation’s enduring electoral appeal will be tested in the next 12 months, when the two most populous states hold elections – Victoria in November and NSW in March. The party won 22.9 per cent of the vote in the South Australian election three months ago.

The Nationals’ Senate seats are the most vulnerable. The junior Coalition partner has four senators, with three up for re-election in 2028. Party leader Matt Canavan, whip Ross Cadell and deputy leader Bridget McKenzie could all lose their seats under current polling.

McKenzie said last month that she would campaign with One Nation in Labor-held seats, despite the existential risk to her own career.

Joyce said he did not take pleasure in the Nationals losing ground, and that he wanted both parties to succeed at the expense of Labor.

“I don’t wish bad on the Nats. I’m not here revelling in the demise of the Nats or the Liberal party. I wish them the very best. My opposition are the socialists, not my former colleagues.”

Hanson in the House?

In a series of media appearances this week, Hanson said she is considering a move to the House of Representatives, where she could serve as prime minister, opposition leader, or head of a powerful voting bloc, depending on One Nation’s electoral performance.

Speculation over which seat Hanson could run in has been rife.

The most widely discussed has been Nationals MP Michelle Landry’s Queensland seat of Capricornia. The seat takes in the city of Rockhampton and sections of Mackay.

The Liberal held seat of Wright, which takes in the Gold Coast hinterland, has also been suggested as a possible option. One Nation achieved a 16 per cent primary vote in Wright last year, and Hanson lives in the electorate.

Oxley and Blair, both held by Labor, could also be options. Hanson won Oxley, now held by Labor speaker Milton Dick, in 1996. She was disendorsed by the Liberal Party before the election, but ballots listed Hanson as the Liberal candidate.

On Monday, Hanson noted there was no constitutional requirement for the prime minister to sit in the lower house.

Constitutional law expert Professor Anne Twomey agreed, with qualification, saying: “While the Constitution requires that the prime minister be a member of parliament … it does not specify which house he or she must sit in”.

“Under another convention, the governor-general appoints as prime minister the person who commands the confidence of the House of Representatives. It is hard to command its confidence if the prime minister is not directly accountable to it … and cannot be directly sanctioned by it.”

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