B.C. snap election look back: NDP pivots, Conservative unity questions, and a vote few wanted

Most of the anger from voters, however, appears to be over the calling of a snap election at the same time as a municipal campaign, as well as fatigue of a government that has been in power for nine years.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, scrambled together a campaign team that included operatives from the leadership campaigns of Caroline Elliott, now the candidate for West Vancouver-Capilano, and Iain Black, now a co-chair of the party’s election effort.

The party has been forced to drop two candidates for racist online posts, both in safe NDP seats, while also deflecting calls to fire campaign manager Katy Merrifield for anti-Muslim comments on social media, and a furor over a leaked letter to lawyers about their plans to get rid of no-fault insurance at ICBC.

Despite this, it appears B.C.’s main centre-right party has the advantage going into election night.

“Time for a change” sentiment is high, with Leger finding that 45 per cent of voters have grown more negative about Eby over the past week, compared to only 22 per cent for Doerkson.

Both the Conservatives and NDP have focused on tax changes and creating economic growth. Eby proposes to raise the top two income tax brackets by two points, and create a new bracket for those making over $1 million, while the Conservatives have promised to cut taxes and not introduce any new ones.

Some corners of the NDP feel that the best-case scenario for the party is that they come away with a slim majority, which they secured in 2024 with a 22-vote victory in Surrey-Guildford.

For all of the talk about the seat count needed for Eby to remain in his position as leader, some party strategists think the NDP no longer has the luxury of worrying about who leads the party forward and that the focus is now on saving whatever they can.

They hope the Green vote, currently measured at 13 per cent by Leger, drops and that voters vote for the NDP over fears of a Conservative government.

Other operatives are more bullish, but even then feel that the race will come down to the wire, and that whoever has a better result in seat-rich Surrey will form government.

The Conservatives, feeling the advantage, have been limiting Doerkson’s appearances and trying to avoid any blunders that could halt their momentum.

Questions remain within the party about whether the interim leader can keep the caucus together, even if the Conservatives form government. But most within the party feel that it would be foolish to challenge the person who could bring them into government for the first time since 1933.

The last Conservative premier to get elected was Simon Fraser Tolmie in 1928.

“This is one thing I’ve learned: My throat cannot yell five hours a day, without it being challenged,” said Doerkson, while on a final campaign stop in Surrey.

“Three or four weeks ago, I didn’t know that I would be doing this.”

As for the Greens, leader Emily Lowan has been focused on the ridings she believes her party can win, including the two they currently hold in Saanich North and the Islands and West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

Other ridings they have focused on include Victoria-Beacon Hill, where they believe the lack of a Conservative candidate can help them, and Saanich South.

As Eby said again Thursday, however, the only poll that matters is the final count on election night, and the NDP leader will be hoping his early election gamble pays off. The Conservatives hope that Doerkson can lead the party back to the premier’s office for the first time in almost 100 years.

“The poll that matters is the vote that British Columbians mark in the ballot box, and the choice is stark,” said Eby.

alzenby@postmedia.com