B.C. NDP and Conservatives seek to limit vote-splitting in rare election with five high-profile parties

Analysts say the small gap in the polls between the NDP and Conservatives means the outcome of the 2026 snap election could come down to how well the Greens, OneBC and CentreBC parties perform in a handful of tight races.

Green Leader Emily Lowan is hoping to give disillusioned NDP voters a different option, while CentreBC Leader Elenore Sturko and OneBC Leader Dallas Brodie are expending more energy trying to pick off the edges of the Conservative’s coalition.

Their ability to pick up votes could be constrained, however, with analysts saying fears among progressive voters of a Conservative victory could limit Green support, while CentreBC and OneBC are too new and running fewer than 40 candidates each.

Jillian Oliver, a Green strategist and former campaign manager, said Lowan’s strategy since becoming leader of the party last fall has been to take it in a more progressive direction than either of her most recent predecessors, Sonia Furstenau and newly minted CentreBC candidate Andrew Weaver.

She said that Lowan has also attempted to take ground in policy areas left open by the NDP, such as child care and housing, that have always formed a bedrock of Green promises, while also swinging for the fences with a new wealth tax targeting British Columbians worth more than $50 million.

“Andrew and Sonia would both answer a question about where they fit on the political spectrum [by] talking about the issues and how to make a difference in people’s lives, whereas I think that Lowan has campaigned more as a traditional left-wing, worker-first party,” said Oliver.

This shift includes Lowan’s support of striking BCGEU workers last fall, as well as the nominating of candidates like Carolyn Howe, president of the Greater Victoria Teachers’ Association, in Victoria-Swan Lake.

Mike McKinnon, Western Canada director at Enterprise Canada and former deputy communications director to the late NDP premier John Horgan, said the problem for the Greens is they risk being squeezed by strategic voting, with supporters voting for the NDP to keep the Conservatives at bay.

He said there are a handful of ridings where less than 100 votes could make the difference in who wins the seat.

“While the Green strategy is to try and take seats away from the NDP, the reality is that most of their voters want to prevent a Conservative government,” said McKinnon.

A new poll from Leger has the Conservatives with 42 per cent support among decided voters, while the NDP have 40 per cent and the Greens have nine per cent.

OneBC has four per cent support among decided voters, according to Leger, while CentreBC has three per cent, with the firm surveying 1,000 British Columbians over the age of 18 between Oct. 9-12. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.