Americans are likely to face higher heating bills this winter amid a growing affordability crisis, with costs projected to climb more than 7% nationwide and some households facing increases of up to 70%, according to a new report.
The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada), which represents state officials seeking federal funding, warns that disruptions stemming from the war with Iran are pushing heating costs higher as millions of families already struggle to pay utility bills.
Households relying on heating oil, particularly in the north-east and Alaska, face the biggest increases. Nearly 5m households use the fuel, with seasonal costs potentially jumping 70%, to approximately $2,977.
The north-east is expected to see average heating bills rise 16.9%, or $221, from $1,311 last winter to $1,532 this winter. The region has some of the nation’s highest electricity prices and the greatest concentration of heating oil customers.
“For higher-income households, these increases may be an inconvenience. For low- and middle-income families, they can be devastating,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of Neada, in a statement.
“Families are already struggling with rising costs for food, housing and other necessities. Adding hundreds or even thousands of dollars to their winter heating bills will push many of them further into debt.”
Global fuel supply disruptions are adding pressure. Supplies have tightened as refineries in the Middle East and Russia shut down or cut production amid the US-Israel war with Iran and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Wolfe wrote last month about how the Iran war is deepening the US’s energy crisis, describing heating oil as “the canary in the coalmine” for the broader affordability crisis.
“The situation in the strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile, and continued uncertainty about global oil supplies makes it difficult to predict where prices will go,” Wolfe said. “For planning purposes, we believe it is prudent to assume that heating oil prices will remain elevated throughout the winter heating season.”
The projected increases come as roughly one in six US households are behind on utility payments, collectively owing about $23bn, Neada reported.
Other households are expected to pay more as well. Electric heating costs could increase about 6%, to $1,215, while propane bills are projected to rise roughly 5%, to an average of $1,350.
The warning follows a record-hot summer that saw widespread financial hardship and electricity shutoffs. In July, the hottest month ever recorded in the US, utilities disconnected power to 173,598 households across 10 states despite dangerous temperatures.
With winter bills expected to climb, Neada is urging Congress to provide relief.
“Energy is not a luxury. Families need to be able to heat their homes without worrying about whether they can afford food, medicine or rent,” Wolfe said. “Congress has an opportunity to provide immediate relief before these higher winter bills arrive.”
