In the NFL, almost every year we see a team go from last place to first place in their division. Last season, the New England Patriots did it and made it to the Super Bowl.
Aaron Schatz looked at the eight last-place teams from last year and the likelihood each would bounce back and win their division.
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The Arizona Cardinals, of course, were the worst team in the NFC West.
Cardinals fans should know what is coming from Schatz. It might feel like trolling at this point, but it really isn’t.
The Cardinals are the least likely last-place team to win their division. They have a 0.1% chance of winning the NFC West and a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs.
The Cardinals led the NFL in adjusted games lost last season; they were completely pummeled by injuries. They also faced the hardest schedule in the league by DVOA. These facts might make them an interesting prospect for 2026 improvement except for two things. First, they have questions up and down the roster, especially at the QB position. Second, they’re still going to have one of the hardest schedules in the league because they are stuck in the NFC West with the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers — three of the five top teams in the league based on the FPI.
That makes a division title almost absurdly unlikely for the Cardinals. They go into the season ranked 29th in the FPI.
Even if 34-year-old QB Jacoby Brissett has his best season, and the defense improves enough to make the Cardinals one of the top 10 teams, the team still has to hope that the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers all collapse. A Cardinals division title in 2026 would probably be the most unlikely division title in NFL history.
Looking at the Cardinals’ schedule, it feels hard to pick four games they can win. They are underdogs in every game.
Most position groups aren’t improved, and they play in an impossible division.
Would it be the most unlikely division title ever? Probably.
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This article originally appeared on Cards Wire: Arizona Cardinals are least likely last-place team to win division in 2026
