Michigan needs one more win to go bowling, but the question everyone is asking is: when will that come? The Wolverines head to Eugene this weekend to take on Oregon, a team that’s on the cusp of entering playoff talk. The Ducks can’t afford another loss and Kyle Whittingham’s comments this weekend has given Oregon bulletin board material.
However, the game has to be played and Michigan has the talent to go into Oregon and pull off the upset. But the Wolverines are going to need to play a flawless game for that to happen.
Here are three keys.
Find a way to win the turnover margin
Michigan has won the turnover battle one time this season and that came against Oklahoma in Week 2. Against Rutgers, it was even, with neither team turning the ball over. This past week against Michigan State? The Wolverines were -4 in the turnover battle.
You’re not going to win games turning the ball over at the rate Michigan does and that’s showing with a 5-4 record through nine games. The Wolverines are dead last in the Big Ten, -8 on the season. It’s not acceptable and Michigan won’t beat a team like Oregon if it continues to turn it over at a high clip.
Michigan has lost the ball 17 times, and Oregon isn’t far behind the Wolverines, turning it over 13 times this season. Michigan’s defense needs to be opportunistic and make plays. We’ve seen Dylan Raiola turn the ball over way too often, and if the Wolverines can get pressure, it’s possible he airs one to Michigan.
Control the clock
This goes hand and hand with running the ball. Michigan isn’t built to get in a track meet with Oregon, and that’s what the Ducks are looking to do. Oregon is comfortable scoring quickly and putting its defense on the field, but that’s not how the Wolverines are going to have any chance of winning this game.
Michigan has to establish the run in this game. You can’t ask Tommy Carr to go win this game. He looked good two weeks ago against Rutgers, but looked very much like a true freshman this past weekend against Michigan State.
We know Andrew Sprague isn’t playing and it sounds like Blake Frazier won’t play either. The Wolverines’ offensive line is banged up once again, and Michigan needs its running backs to make some guys miss. If the Wolverines can establish the run at all and control the clock, Michigan would have an outside chance of getting into the fourth quarter with a puncher’s chance.
Keep the Ducks behind the chains
Oregon isn’t that good on third downs. The Ducks rank 14th in the Big Ten, converting 37.8% of their third-down attempts. Oregon won’t have running back Jordan Davison for this game, which means the Ducks are playing their second string quarterback and running back.
Michigan’s defensive line has to play better than it did against Michigan State. The Wolverines listed John Henry Daley and Dom Nichols as Questionable, but that’s been a common theme this season. The Wolverines have the luxury of rotating their edges to keep fresh guys in the game, and they are deep enough along the interior as well.
The key here is to force Raiola to throw for six or seven yards on third down. If Michigan can stuff the run and force Raiola to beat the Wolverines’ secondary, Michigan has a chance to get off the field early and put the game in the offense’s hands.
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