It hasn’t been the season either team has hoped for. One team has a clear talent advantage, though, and it isn’t Michigan State.
The Spartans are entering the annual Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy 2-6 overall and 0-5 in Big Ten play. Michigan is 5-3 overall and 2-3 against conference foes. UM is quote-unquote “beatable,” but it will take a lot for MSU to go into the Big House and win.
Some specific matchups need to swing Michigan State’s way for that to happen. These three will feel particularly important for the team’s odds.
MSU vs. Its Own Injuries
If you hoped the bye week would provide much-needed injury relief for Michigan State, you’re probably disappointed. The list of players already ruled out for Saturday night is long, including QB2 Cam Fancher, RB1 Cam Edwards, RB2 Jaziun Patterson, RB3 Marvis Parrish, TE1 Jayden Savoury, LB1 Jordan Hall, DT1 Ben Roberts, CB1 Tre Bell, and CB3 Charles Brantley.
That “questionable” line will determine a lot. The guys whose status is TBD, at least publicly, are: QB1 Alessio Milivojevic, CB2 Tyran Chappell, CB4/5 Keshawn Williams, and SS1 Devin Vaught. This is the battle that Michigan State has to win before it even steps on the Michigan Stadium turf.
Milivojevic, of course, is the most important name. If he cannot play for the second consecutive game and MSU is forced to start true freshman Kayd Coffman, the game will feel wrapped up already. Coffman flashed a lot of talent against now-No. 5 UCLA, but it looked like a true freshman performance. Michigan’s defense is of the same elite tier as the Bruins’, ranking third nationally in total defense and 18th in scoring.
The only real good news from the initial availability report was that Chappell and Williams were questionable. Chappell has been out throughout conference play, and Williams hasn’t played since Nebraska. Getting either back would be a boost in the secondary. Chappell would almost certainly start if available, and Williams would, at the very least, provide some much-needed depth.
Vaught’s availability will also be huge news. He’s been a bright spot at strongside or boundary-side safety with his elite run defense, and his chops in coverage have appeared to improve in recent weeks.
MSU DT Derrick Simmons vs. UM’s Interior OL
Another big injury blow was to star nose tackle Ben Roberts, who got hurt on the very first defensive snap at UCLA. His absence this week, and, in all likelihood, beyond, means that sophomore Derrick Simmons will have to shoulder a very large load. Simmons played a season-high 47 defensive snaps at UCLA with Roberts out, and he’ll likely start in his place on Saturday.
Roberts was probably the most irreplaceable player left on Michigan State’s roster this season, but Simmons has to somehow try to replace him. He needs to try to eat as many double teams as possible, as Roberts did, to free up his fellow defensive linemen and the Spartans’ linebackers.
If there are a lot of snaps where Simmons is getting blocked one-on-one, there is a good chance another Wolverine offensive lineman is operating up at the second level of MSU’s defense. Michigan’s starting offensive line features Nathan Efobi at left guard, Jake Guarnera at center (he’s probable to play on Saturday), and Brady Norton at right guard (questionable to play).
UM WR JJ Buchanan vs. MSU’s CBs
The main player Michigan State’s defense must stop is wide receiver JJ Buchanan. He’s been a very bright spot on a struggling Michigan offense. Buchanan followed head coach Kyle Whittingham from Utah this offseason and has been a star. He’s got 38 catches for 611 yards and five touchdowns through eight games this season. Michigan State’s three starting receivers have just 758 yards and four touchdowns combined, for additional reference.
Buchanan is a big reason why getting Chappell or Williams back would be a boost. If they cannot play, NiJhay Burt and freshman Jeremiah Favorite will be the favorites to start at corner.
Buchanan is a huge threat to make flashy, impressive plays downfield with some great hands; Buchanan most notably caught UM’s Hail Mary to controversially defeat Western Michigan at the buzzer in Week 1.
He’s been Michigan’s leading receiver in all but one game this year, with the exception being the easiest game of the season vs. UTEP. The switch from Bryce Underwood to Tommy Carr hasn’t changed things. Buchanan had six catches for 57 yards against Indiana in Carr’s first start and five catches for 72 yards and one touchdown last week at Rutgers.
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