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Time and date: Saturday, September 26 at 12:00 p.m. ET
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Network: TNT
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Location: Galaxy Stadium — Lubbock, TX
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Spread: Texas Tech (-34.5)
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Over/under: 55.5
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All-time series: Texas Tech leads, 2-0
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Last meeting: Texas Tech 59, Sam Houston Houston 45 — September 5, 2015
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Current streak: Texas Tech, 2 (2005-15)
It wasn’t the start to the season Texas Tech envisioned, but when it was time to make a statement, the Red Raiders delivered. Joey McGuire’s team rose to No. 11 in the AP Poll after staving off current No. 25 Houston in a Friday night thriller. Equipped with a 1-0 conference record, Texas Tech now approaches its final non-conference matchup before immersing fully into Big 12 play.
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Their opponent may be 1-2, but the vibes are high despite the record. Sam Houston looks like one of the most improved FBS teams after three weeks. The Bearkats lost one-score heartbreakers to Sun Belt and American contenders in the first two weeks, but they are clearly far from the 2-10 bottom feeder they were last year. Texas Tech is Sam Houston’s toughest opponent yet, but the Bearkats have remained poised as underdogs this September.
The vibes are good in Huntsville, TX again. Sam Houston (1-2, 0-0 CUSA) returned to campus this year after a tumultuous 2025, where it played its home games 70 miles away in downtown Houston. That stability has worked wonders for the program, which went toe-to-toe with Troy and Tulsa in Weeks 1 and 2 before an all-out domination in Week 3.
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Sure, Sam Houston played an FCS opponent in Nicholls, but it was the most dominant showing by a CUSA squad against the FCS this season. The Bearkats collected their most points (59) and yards (619) as an FBS program, wholly dominating from start to finish in the shutout.
The main reason for Sam Houston optimism starts at quarterback. Landyn Locke has completely transformed the position. Through three games, he has thrown for 335, 316, and 322 yards. Sam Houston has played 40 games at the FBS level, and those are the three highest passing totals since the Bearkats made the jump in 2023. Locke has pushed the offense vertically, and he’s done it in an efficient manner, completing 67.6 percent of passes with nine touchdowns and just one interception.
There are still imperfections on offense to hash out. One is the offensive line which surrendered a combined nine sacks against its two FBS opponents. Additionally, the most rushing yards by a Bearkat in those FBS matchups was 51 — by lead back Alton McCaskill, who made his collegiate debut vs. Texas Tech in 2021. However, against Nicholls, those problems were suddenly solved, as the unit only allowed one tackle for loss all game. Texas Tech will be a different beast though.
Five different Bearkats have recorded 100 receiving yards through four games. Grady O’Neill has been the reliable short-yardage specialist with 17 receptions for 192 yards, while Chris Reed and Tim Burns Jr. have been the vertical threats, averaging 22.7 and 25.6 yards per catch, respectively. It’s a deep group complementing Locke, and Sam Houston has skyrocketed from 110th to sixth in passing offense over the course of one offseason.
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The Bearkat defense hasn’t surrendered more than 24 points all season. Sam Houston’s toughest opponent to date, Tulsa, only managed two offensive touchdowns on the unit (the other was a special teams fake punt). What the Bearkats do best is create inefficiency in opposing passing games. Sam Houston currently sports the best opponent completion percentage in the FBS, limiting foes to a 43.8 percent completion rate.
New transfer cornerback Ishmel Atkins is contributing to this statistic. Atkins, with five pass deflections, is one away from being atop the national leaderboard. Sam Houston has also dialed up more pressure this year. NC State transfer outside linebacker Elijah Groves has found a home as a lead pass rusher, contributing 2.5 sacks for this vastly improved defense.
Texas Tech (3-0, 1-0 Big 12) hasn’t collected the style points it did during its 2025 Big 12 title run, but the Red Raiders remain unscathed. Last year, all 12 victories accrued were by at least 22 points. This season, Texas Tech trailed in the third quarter to Houston and in the fourth quarter to Oregon State, only winning those matchups by a combined 13 points.
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After trailing 10-0 against Houston, Texas Tech finally found its footing. The Red Raiders made the surprise decision to start Thomas Castellanos at quarterback last Friday, but the experiment lasted just one play — an interception. Will Hammond checked in and adjusted well, providing the explosiveness Texas Tech severely lacked in its passing attack in Weeks 1 and 2. He regularly connected with Pitt transfer Kenny Johnson 20+ yards from the line of scrimmage. The Hammond-to-Johnson connection was pivotal in crucial situations, and Texas Tech won its Big 12 opener thanks to a 60 percent third down conversion rate.
Texas Tech also ignited running back Cameron Dickey, who overcame early September struggles for a stellar Week 3 outing. He remains paired with J’Koby Williams in a dynamic backfield, which received better support from the offensive line last week. When the ground game got going in the second half, that’s when Texas Tech pulled ahead, and it’s offense showed its best balance of the season.
Wide receiver Coy Eakin and All-Big 12 tight end Terrance Carter Jr. are among the other weapons the Red Raiders will deploy, as the team still looks to score more than 35 for the first time all season.
Texas Tech’s defense still needs vast improvement to revert to its 2025 level of dominance. The Red Raiders famously never allowed more than 126 rushing yards last season. Meanwhile, Houston just posted 176. Losing the entire starting defensive line to the NFL Draft isn’t easy to overcome, but Texas Tech showed some progress up front last Friday. The debut of San Diego State transfer defensive end Trey White added firepower to the line, and he worked well alongside All-American defensive tackle A.J. Holmes and Miami (OH) transfer defensive end Adam Trick, who recorded a key strip sack.
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But the Red Raiders’ current Achilles heel is the coverage unit. Texas Tech may field the best cornerback in the country in Brice Pollock (who has five pass breakups), but the rest of the secondary has been picked on at times. Oregon State threw for 417 yards and three touchdowns, while Houston managed 286 yards and three scores. The return of safety Brenden Jordan, who missed the first two outings before starting last weekend, could be a much-needed stabilizer on the back end.
Two things can be true. One, Sam Houston is a bona fide Conference USA contender and is one of college football’s most improved teams. Two, Texas Tech found its rhythm in the second half against Houston and has the tools to dominate this game.
The matchup to watch involves A.J. Holmes and the Red Raiders’ refurbished defensive line against a Sam Houston offensive line which has been prone to giving up pressures. Landyn Locke might be able to dice the Texas Tech secondary with time, but time is no guarantee against this front.
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Texas Tech improves to 4-0 in its quest for another College Football Playoff bid, while Sam Houston can still feel good about its 1-3 start heading into CUSA play.
Prediction: Texas Tech 42, Sam Houston 14
